A challenging year looms for Thailand’s residential property market as 2024’s weakness persists into 2025. With subdued domestic demand and structural obstacles to foreign demand, industry voices say the market needs durable, long-term policy solutions rather than short-term relief. The Thai Condominium Association highlights that while local demand exists, access to credit and the absence of stable government support measures are hindering buyers. Until structural fixes are in place, the market is likely to grapple with affordability issues and a cautious spending environment.
Market Outlook for 2025: Domestic Demand and Financing Hurdles
Domestic demand remains a critical but constrained pillar of the Thai condo market. The association’s president, Prasert Taedullayasatit, notes that potential buyers still contend with difficulties securing mortgages despite the presence of some demand. This situation is exacerbated by the lack of permanent government support measures, which creates a fragile foundation for sustained buyer activity. In practical terms, even when households show interest in purchasing, the inability to finance purchases curbs conversion from intent to contract.
One of the core issues driving affordability is the upward trajectory of housing prices. Prasert emphasizes that rising prices have eroded affordability for middle- and lower-income buyers. At the same time, upper-tier buyers have started to pull back, choosing to exercise caution in a market where leverage and price growth are becoming mismatched with income growth and mortgage accessibility. The association stresses that subsidies and targeted relief remain essential to stabilize demand, even as other market signals show resilience in certain segments.
Reductions in transfer and mortgage fees, typically introduced during market slowdowns, are viewed as temporary measures. Prasert’s assessment is that such reliefs do not address the underlying demand dynamics or the need for sustainable, long-term solutions. In other words, while these incentives can provide immediate relief, they do not alter fundamental affordability constraints or the structural frictions in the credit environment. The result is a market that can experience momentary relief but lacks a durable mechanism to sustain demand through cycles of price pressure and tighter financial conditions.
The dynamics of mortgage access are particularly consequential for the domestic segment. If access to credit remains constrained, even buyers who successfully navigate price levels may be unable to complete purchases. This constraint feeds into a broader cycle where developing demand requires a stable and predictable financial environment, including accessible credit terms, reasonable interest rates, and reliable government-backed support where appropriate. The association’s framing suggests that without durable policy interventions, the domestic segment’s strength may continue to wobble as prices stay elevated relative to income growth and credit conditions remain tight.
From a buyer behavior perspective, the combination of price pressure and financing hurdles tends to shift demand toward segments with greater affordability or more favorable financing conditions. The net effect is a potential shift away from highly priced, premium units toward mid-market offerings that may offer better balance between price, value, and monthly payments. This segmentation shift can influence developers’ product strategies, marketing approaches, and the types of projects that gain traction in a constrained lending environment.
The high-level takeaway for 2025 is clear: domestic demand is fragile but present, and the key to unlocking sustainable growth will be a combination of price discipline, targeted subsidies, and durable financing solutions. In the absence of such measures, affordability remains a central headwind, with risks of slower year-over-year sales momentum and a continued challenge in translating consumer interest into transactions. The association’s framing reinforces that policy clarity and financing accessibility will be the decisive factors shaping the trajectory of the Thai condo market in the coming year.
Foreign Demand and the Need for Structural Reform
Beyond domestic considerations, foreign demand presents its own set of structural challenges that limit the market’s potential. The association points to a lack of transparent legal frameworks governing property ownership for non-Thais, particularly for landed houses. The only clearly established provision at present is the 49% foreign ownership cap for condominiums. This creates a landscape where foreign buyers may resort to nominees or other unconventional methods to secure properties with land, underscoring the urgency of long-term reforms.
The president of the association, who is also the chief operating officer of Ananda Development (a SET-listed company), emphasizes the scale of foreign involvement in the sector. Ananda reported that 41% of its portfolio, valued at 12 billion baht, comes from foreign buyers. The implication is that foreign demand is not merely a marginal factor but a material driver of revenue and market activity. Without this contribution, Ananda’s sales and revenue would have declined by 41%, illustrating how deeply foreign participation can influence corporate performance in the sector.
Despite broader market headwinds, the condo market’s exposure to foreign demand has shown some resilience in transfers within Greater Bangkok. The total condo transfers to foreign buyers declined by only 1% in the January-to-October period, moving from 36.3 billion baht in 2023 to 35.9 billion baht in 2024. This relative stability points to a sustained level of foreign interest in the sector, even as other segments experience volatility. The resilience of foreign-led transactions highlights the importance of a viable framework for foreign ownership and residency that can support long-term asset stability and appeal.
However, the lack of clear residency regulations for foreigners remains a structural issue. Prasert argues that while a 49% condo ownership cap provides a degree of access, the absence of comprehensive policies governing residency and land ownership presents a fundamental mismatch between policy and market needs. He advocates for measures such as long-term leaseholds for both Thai citizens and foreigners, with a maximum term of 60 years. His proposal envisions two separate lease contracts, each lasting 25 to 30 years, designed in a way that preserves land ownership within Thai sovereignty while enabling foreigners and non-residents to secure housing tenure through extended leases rather than outright ownership.
In terms of policy direction, Prasert proposes increasing the foreign ownership quota for condos from 49% to 75%. He also suggests imposing limits on unit area and implementing a set of residential regulations that clarify foreigners’ status as residents. These measures would be paired with fiscal instruments, such as taxes on property ownership and long-term leases by foreigners, to establish a dedicated fund that could support homeownership initiatives for low- and middle-income Thais. The overarching aim is to create a permanent, government-backed structure that benefits Thai citizens while preserving a conducive environment for foreign investment in the condo sector.
The conversation around foreign ownership is not purely about access; it also touches on the risk management and long-term stability of the market. A more transparent framework can help reduce reliance on informal arrangements and “nominee” structures, which can carry legal and reputational risks for developers and buyers alike. A structured policy approach would provide clearer expectations for all stakeholders—developers, foreign buyers, Thai residents, and financial institutions—thereby improving liquidity, reducing regulatory risk, and potentially attracting more sustainable investment into condo projects.
Beyond ownership, Prasert’s broader reform agenda also encompasses tax-based strategies to support housing access and affordability. He recommends taxing property ownership and long-term foreign leases as a means to create a dedicated fund to back homeownership initiatives for lower-income groups. The objective of such a fund would be to provide access to affordable housing options for Thais who face affordability constraints, ensuring a permanent mechanism that channels tax revenue into social benefits rather than episodic incentives.
This line of thinking reflects a longer-term vision: to align policy tools with market realities in a way that preserves Thailand’s attractiveness to foreign capital while ensuring that Thai citizens benefit from the country’s housing markets. It also points to the need for a cohesive regulatory framework that can govern residency, leasing, and land-use, all of which impact both the demand side (foreign buyers) and the supply side (developers and lenders). The combination of higher foreign quota, clear lease-based occupancy arrangements, and a fiscally supported homeownership program presents a holistic approach to reconfiguring the market’s structure in a way that could yield more stable growth over time.
In sum, the foreign demand narrative highlights the necessity of structural reforms. The status quo—while it has enabled some foreign participation—does not provide a durable framework for property ownership and residency. The association’s proposals, if implemented, could shift the market toward a more transparent, predictable, and inclusive model that balances foreign investment with Thai citizens’ long-term housing needs. The path forward, as outlined by Prasert and reinforced by Ananda’s experience, centers on a combination of expanded ownership levers, longer-term lease mechanisms, residency governance, and a fiscally supported program to promote homeownership for local households.
Market Performance, Supply, and Developer Perspective
The condo market’s performance in 2024 and into 2025 reflects a challenging supply-demand balance, with a significant portion of completed condo stock remaining unsold. The association’s commentary underscores that even as developers seek revenue in a difficult environment, demand remains constrained and refinancing options are strained. The persistent headwinds include high interest rates, a sluggish economy, and an elevated mortgage rejection rate that persisted through 2024, marking what was described as the worst year for the sector in a decade.
Several key indicators illustrate the breadth of the challenge. The mortgage rejection rate, averaging between 60% and 70% at times in 2024, translates into a substantial portion of potential buyers being unable to secure financing. This painful reality not only suppresses current sales but also undermines investor confidence and the market’s capacity to absorb new supply through refinancing mechanisms. The confluence of high rates and cautious lending practices effectively reduces the pool of eligible buyers who can convert interest into contracted purchases.
Sales performance and launching activity were notably weak in 2024. Overall, the market experienced a 31% decline in sales, accompanied by a 24% drop in new launches, and an 8% reduction in transfers during the first nine months of the year. These metrics reflect a cascade of effects: developers faced shrinking demand, which in turn dampened confidence and slowed project initiations. The downward momentum in launches can further constrain selections for buyers, limiting options and potentially contributing to pent-up demand once financing conditions improve.
Despite the broader contraction, there remains a degree of resilience within the foreign-demand segment. The smaller decline in condo transfers to foreign buyers—only 1% for the January-October period—suggests that foreign interest persisted even amid overall market weakness. This nuance indicates that foreign buyers, when accessing favorable regulatory conditions or perceived value, can continue to participate in the market, albeit within a constrained framework that does not fully offset domestic headwinds.
On the supply side, completed condo stock is valued at 141 billion baht for the year, with a substantial portion still unsold. The inventory overhang poses a classic supply/demand mismatch: developers have completed projects and have ongoing financing obligations, including refinance needs for maturing debentures. With limited buyer enthusiasm and stricter credit conditions, the market risks a prolonged period of slow absorption. This risk is particularly acute for developers who rely on new issuance or refinancing to manage debt maturities and fund ongoing project pipelines. The resulting tension can place pressure on project viability and developer strategies, potentially affecting long-term supply dynamics.
Industry voices emphasize that even as the market corrects and absorbs new supply, the question of sustainability remains central. While some segments may see pockets of demand—especially where pricing aligns with local affordability and where foreign demand remains constructive—the overall environment remains fragile. For developers, the challenge is balancing the need to complete and sell existing inventories with the requirement to fund new projects under tighter lending conditions and a less forgiving macroeconomic backdrop. In this context, the market’s ability to absorb a large unsold stock pile will hinge on a combination of price strategies, financing access, demand-stimulating policies, and the creation of a more predictable long-term regulatory framework.
The 2024 “perfect storm” of challenges undoubtedly left a mark on sentiment and expectations for 2025. The industry acknowledges that 2024 was the most adverse year in a decade, characterized by stagnation in the economy, elevated interest rates, and a persistently high mortgage rejection rate. The ripple effects were clear in the metrics noted above, with the sector experiencing a multifaceted downturn. The implications extend beyond numbers: they influence project timelines, marketing strategies, and the willingness of developers and investors to commit capital in a high-risk, high-cost environment.
Despite these headwinds, the forward-looking view remains complex and nuanced. On one hand, there is some evidence of resilience in foreign-dominated transactions, and on the other hand, domestic affordability and financing constraints threaten to suppress the broader market’s trajectory. The association’s analysis suggests that the path to stabilization will require policy and market actions that address both demand-side constraints (affordability and access to credit) and supply-side pressures (financing costs, project feasibility, and inventory management). The emphasis is on durable reforms that can foster a stable, predictable market environment—one that can attract both local and foreign investment while ensuring that Thai buyers have meaningful access to homeownership.
Policy Implications, Long-Term Structural Reforms, and Financial Strategy
A central theme across the association’s discussion is the need for durable, structural reforms that extend beyond immediate subsidies or temporary relief measures. The emphasis is on creating a predictable policy environment and a financing architecture that aligns with the realities of both domestic buyers and foreign participants. The proposed measures include a combination of regulatory changes, lease-based tenure options, and fiscal instruments designed to support homeownership for Thai citizens.
Among the most concrete proposals is the adoption of long-term leaseholds for both Thais and foreigners, with a maximum total term of 60 years, structured as two consecutive contracts of 25–30 years each. This approach aims to provide stability in tenure without the introduction of land ownership rights for non-Thais. It represents a compromise that can facilitate housing access while preserving land ownership within national boundaries. Such a framework would need to be accompanied by robust protections for both tenants and landlords, clear rules about renewal, and predictable cost structures to avoid disputes or uncertainty.
Another key reform discussed is the easing or expansion of foreign ownership quotas for condos, with a proposed increase from the current 49% to 75%. The rationale is to unlock additional demand from foreign buyers without compromising the market’s orientation toward Thai residents. This proposal would likely require careful calibration to prevent market distortions and to ensure that the ownership mix supports long-term housing policy goals. It would also necessitate implementing regulatory controls on the area of units eligible for foreign ownership and integrating these controls with broader residential policy frameworks.
The association also advocates for establishing explicit residential regulations that categorize foreigners as residents, enabling them to contribute to the housing ecosystem through formalized tenancy arrangements rather than ad hoc occupancy. In parallel, they propose a tax-based approach: levy taxes on property ownership and long-term leases by foreigners to fund a dedicated homeownership program for low- and middle-income Thai households. The objective is to create a permanent funding mechanism that supports Thai citizens, reinforcing the government’s ability to expand access to affordable housing through a stable fiscal channel.
These proposals reflect a coherent strategy to rebalance the housing market by integrating foreign participation with targeted support for local buyers. The tax-funded homeownership fund would not only help subsidize or subsidize programs for lower-income groups but could also seed a more comprehensive social housing framework. The long-term lease model is intended to provide a clear path for foreign occupancy while maintaining sovereignty over land ownership—a solution designed to reduce reliance on opaque arrangements and improve market transparency.
Underpinning these policy suggestions is the recognition that the Thai condo market’s future depends on aligning incentives across multiple actors: developers, lenders, Thai buyers, and foreign investors. A coherent regulatory framework can reduce uncertainty for lenders, lower the risk of investment mispricing, and improve the market’s resilience to macroeconomic shocks. It can also help preserve Thailand’s competitiveness as a destination for property investment by delivering a predictable policy environment that balances private sector incentives with social and national housing objectives.
The discussions about policy and structural reform are also anchored in the broader market evidence observed by the association. With a substantial portion of completed condo stock remaining unsold, the urgency of durable reforms becomes more pronounced. A policy suite that can address both demand-side constraints—such as mortgage accessibility, affordability, and residual subsidies—and supply-side constraints—such as debt refinancing, capital access, and project financing—will be essential to stabilize and eventually grow the market. The proposed framework seeks to create a capital and housing ecosystem where Thai citizens gain sustainable access to homeownership, while foreign investment can be managed within a transparent, rules-based regime.
Finally, the policy debate acknowledges a persistent challenge: how to balance the immediate needs of developers and buyers with longer-term objectives of housing affordability and macroeconomic stability. The association’s leadership emphasizes that any sustainable solution must be enduring, not ephemeral, and must incorporate mechanisms to ensure that the housing market remains accessible to Thai households while preserving Thailand’s appeal to international investors. In this sense, the proposed reforms are designed to deliver both short-term relief and long-term structural resilience, ensuring that the condo market can weather economic fluctuations and continue to contribute to Thailand’s economic development.
Industry Outlook and the Path Forward for 2025
Looking ahead to 2025, the industry faces a nuanced set of expectations. The association’s insights point toward a scenario where 2024’s pressures continue to ripple through the market, but where strategic policy action and prudent market adjustments could establish a more sustainable trajectory. The fundamental takeaway is that the market’s health hinges on two interlinked dynamics: improving affordability for Thai buyers and creating transparent, predictable frameworks for foreign investment and residency.
From a developer perspective, the emphasis is on managing inventories, securing financing at favorable terms, and aligning project pipelines with the evolving demand landscape. With an estimated 141 billion baht worth of completed condo supply still in the market, developers face a challenging balance between revenue generation and the need to clear stock. The pressure to generate liquidity must be weighed against the risk of discounting prices excessively, which could erode project viability and long-term value for investors.
The resilience observed in foreign-dominated transfers offers a potential tailwind that could be leveraged through careful policy design. If regulatory reforms enable a clearer and more stable framework for foreign ownership and residency, foreign demand could become a stabilizing factor for the market, complementing domestic demand and helping to absorb unsold stock over time. To maximize this potential, policymakers would need to ensure that any expansion of foreign ownership is matched with robust oversight, credible enforcement, and well-thought-out safeguards that protect the interests of Thai citizens and the broader economy.
Meanwhile, the domestic segment’s fate will hinge on the availability of affordable financing and the effectiveness of targeted subsidies. The association’s comments about subsidies being necessary highlight a policy area that could determine the pace at which demand recovers. A calibrated approach to subsidies—focused on households and income brackets most affected by price increases—could support affordability without creating distortions in the housing market. However, subsidies should be paired with longer-term structural reforms to avoid reliance on temporary measures that fail to alter fundamental dynamics.
The “perfect storm” narrative from 2024 serves as a cautionary tale for 2025. If conditions remain adverse—high interest rates, mortgage rejections, and limited demand—the market could experience continued softness in launches and transfers, with developers prioritizing refinancing strategies and liquidity management. Conversely, a stabilization in rates, improved access to credit, and a coherent policy framework could unlock pent-up demand and support a gradual recovery in sales, launches, and transfers. The balance between affordability, regulatory clarity, and financing accessibility will define the pace and durability of the market’s improvement.
In conclusion, the Thai condo market stands at a crossroads in 2025. The voices of industry leaders, including Prasert Taedullayasatit and the leadership at Ananda Development, emphasize the dual necessity of expanding foreign participation through transparent, long-term frameworks while strengthening domestic housing access through sustainable financing and targeted subsidies. The proposed policy measures—long-term leaseholds, a higher foreign ownership quota for condos, residency clarifications, and a tax-funded homeownership initiative—offer a roadmap for structural reform. If implemented thoughtfully, these measures could transform a market plagued by affordability challenges and regulatory uncertainty into a more stable, inclusive, and investment-friendly sector. The ultimate test will be the government’s ability to translate these proposals into durable policy actions that align with the country’s broader economic and social objectives, fostering steady growth in Thailand’s residential property market for years to come.
Conclusion
The Thai condo market faces a difficult but potentially navigable year ahead. Domestic demand remains present but strained by affordability and financing hurdles, while foreign demand confronts a lack of transparent residency and ownership frameworks that curtail long-term market stability. The association’s calls for structural reforms—expanding condo foreign ownership, establishing long-term leasehold arrangements, creating a residency framework for foreigners, and funding Thai homeownership through targeted taxes—offer a comprehensive approach to addressing these challenges. With completed stock totaling 141 billion baht and a history of 2024’s severe market pressures, the sector’s path forward will depend on the successful implementation of these reforms, enhanced financing access, and a calibrated policy mix that sustains both local buyers and foreign investors. The coming year will reveal whether these proposals can translate into durable market resilience, improved affordability for Thai households, and a more predictable investment climate for developers and lenders alike.
