Bitcoin surpassed the $98,000 level for the first time in its history as market optimism surged on reports that the incoming Trump administration is weighing the creation of a dedicated White House office to oversee cryptocurrency policy. On the day of the move, Bitcoin rallied more than 4.5 percent, briefly hitting a fresh all‑time high around $98,367. This renewed upside coincided with a broader positive shift in the crypto market, as total crypto market capitalization expanded and sentiment turned increasingly upbeat among traders and investors. The mood around Bitcoin was buoyant, fueled in part by expectations of a favorable regulatory environment and a policy signal from a high‑profile political figure who has been openly engaged with the crypto sector. As investors weighed the implications, the rally also rekindled discussions about Bitcoin’s long‑standing psychological barrier at $100,000 and the potential for a continued ascent into the balance of the year.
Bitcoin surges to a historic high and the momentum behind the move
Bitcoin’s decisive break above the $98,000 level marked a notable milestone in the evolution of the digital asset market. The intraday surge reflected a blend of momentum traders chasing a new high and longer-term holders who view the price action as confirmation of a broader bullish regime. The magnitude of the move—more than 4.5 percent in a single session—was sizeable even by Bitcoin’s volatile standards and highlighted the market’s readiness to test fresh price territory. In the aftermath of the rally, market capitalization for the broader crypto space also moved higher, rising on the day to support the narrative of a rally that extends beyond a single asset and into a wider ecosystem of tokens, protocols, and related financial products.
The rapid ascent toward new all‑time highs contributed to a sense of euphoria among some market participants, often described in industry chatter as the “Trump Trade.” The label reflects the belief that policy discussions and potential institutional openings associated with the Trump administration could translate into greater mainstream acceptance, clearer regulatory pathways, and a more favorable environment for large‑scale crypto adoption. Traders and analysts pointed to the possibility that Bitcoin could reach the coveted $100,000 mark before year‑end, a level that has long been viewed as a watershed milestone in crypto markets. In parallel, betting markets reflected a strong conviction among participants that the upside could endure, with large swathes of bets aligned with a six‑figure outcome.
The intraday dynamics also underscored the role of macro and policy narratives in shaping price action. While technical indicators and on‑chain metrics offer one lens, the market’s reaction to policy developments—especially those implying a formal governance role for cryptocurrency policy—highlighted how crypto markets increasingly respond to policy signals as much as to liquidity flows or speculative demand. The combination of rising enthusiasm, potential regulatory clarity, and a favorable policy backdrop created a confluence of drivers that reinforced the rally and encouraged market participants to reprice Bitcoin for higher levels in the near term.
The price movement around the $98,000 area also had implications for the broader market’s psychology. As Bitcoin breached new territory, attention intensified on key psychological levels, with $100,000 repeatedly cited as a major milestone that could have a contagious effect on sentiment, positioning, and media attention. The intersection of technical resistance, psychological barriers, and policy expectations created a narrative framework in which Bitcoin’s price action could be interpreted as a precursor to further upside or, conversely, a setup for consolidation if the momentum proved unsustainable.
Within this context, investors examined how the price action in late 2024 and into 2025 could shape the trajectory over the next several months. The confluence of political policy signals, appetite for digital assets by institutions, and the potential for further corporate treasury activity created a multi‑dimensional backdrop for Bitcoin’s price discovery. As market participants absorbed the latest move, a broader question emerged: would the momentum be sustained long enough to push Bitcoin toward the next major milestone, or would the market pause to consolidate after a rapid ascent?
In examining the setup, industry observers emphasized the importance of monitoring not just price levels but the accompanying indicators and flows that drive price discovery. On the occasions when Bitcoin has moved decisively through major price thresholds in the past, subsequent periods of consolidation or pullback have often followed, sometimes accompanied by a reversion to important technical supports or a re‑assessment of macro drivers. While many expect the current rally to test higher targets, they also acknowledge the potential for volatility to reassert itself as the market digests policy developments, shifts in institutional demand, and broader risk sentiment.
Overall, the breakthrough beyond $98,000 signaled a renewed phase in Bitcoin’s cycle, one that places emphasis on policy clarity, institutional participation, and the possibility of continued upside for an extended period. The market’s trajectory in the near term will likely hinge on how policy discussions translate into concrete regulatory signals, how institutional demand evolves, and how investors weigh the risk‑reward balance in the face of volatility that remains a defining feature of Bitcoin’s price history.
Policy attention, institutional demand, and the quest for a national Bitcoin reserve
The narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s price action has increasingly intertwined with policy considerations and the prospect of institutional adoption. A growing chorus of observers has linked Bitcoin’s trajectory to potential developments in U.S. policy architecture, including the possibility of a dedicated White House office or advisory channel focused on cryptocurrency policy. The idea is that a formal policy‑making framework could help reduce regulatory ambiguity, streamline approvals for crypto products, and provide a clear pathway for institutional participants seeking to engage with digital assets at scale. The prospect of such a policy mechanism contributes to a sense of regulatory clarity that could reduce friction for large investors and public‑facing institutions evaluating exposure to Bitcoin and related assets.
Within this policy discourse, notable legislators have proposed concrete steps designed to increase exposure to Bitcoin through official channels. In particular, a draft bill introduced by a prominent senator seeks to authorize the acquisition of up to 5 percent of Bitcoin’s total supply over a five‑year horizon. While the exact mechanics and practical implications of such a policy are subject to debate, the conceptual thrust is clear: a state‑level involvement that signals long‑term financial and strategic recognition of Bitcoin as a serious asset class. Such a stance could potentially represent investments exceeding hundreds of billions of dollars when scaled against Bitcoin’s total supply and price levels, thereby reshaping the permissible scale and direction of government‑linked or state‑backed participation in Bitcoin markets.
Beyond policy architecture, the broader policy environment remains a catalyst for investor interest in Bitcoin. Supportive regulatory shifts—particularly those that clarify how institutional products, such as exchange‑traded funds and other regulated vehicles, interact with Bitcoin—or remove obstacles to institutional participation, have the potential to unlock significant demand. In parallel, the market is watching for continued support for pro‑crypto appointments and a governance ecosystem that favors innovation while maintaining appropriate guardrails. Such dynamics can influence how institutions approach Bitcoin, including considerations around risk management, balance sheet allocators, and treasury strategies.
Institutional demand forms a second pillar of the growth narrative. A rising appetite from institutional investors, hedge funds, family offices, and corporates has been cited as a major driver behind Bitcoin’s renewed strength. The expectation is that as institutional exposure expands, the market will experience more stable demand, better price discovery, and a broader base of buyers across cycles. This elevated demand is also linked to ongoing developments in the ecosystem—such as the emergence of regulated investment products that make it easier for institutions to gain exposure while adhering to risk controls and compliance requirements.
Corporate treasuries and strategic buyers are central to this momentum. Companies like MicroStrategy and others have articulated plans to step up their Bitcoin acquisitions, signaling a strategic tilt toward Bitcoin as part of corporate treasury diversification and long‑term value preservation strategies. The scale of these investment plans, including the prospect of multi‑year capital commitments, underscores the extent to which Bitcoin is increasingly treated as a strategic asset rather than a purely speculative instrument. The implication for price dynamics is that durable demand could sustain longer‑term appreciation and support price levels beyond episodic surges.
Another strand of the policy and demand story concerns the ongoing flow dynamics in the Bitcoin market, particularly the growth of spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds and their cumulative impact on buying pressure. In the aggregate, ETF activity represents a structured channel for capital to enter Bitcoin markets, bringing in a steady stream of investment and contributing to price discovery. The broader implication is that as more regulated vehicles come to market and as retail and institutional participants gain exposure through familiar investment channels, the market could experience more stable inflows and a more robust demand base that supports higher price levels over time.
Taken together, policy conversations, proposed legislative measures, and the interplay of institutional demand with corporate strategy create a multi‑layered framework that could sustain Bitcoin’s upside. If policy clarity improves, if authorized investment vehicles expand access to a broader investor base, and if corporate capital continues to commit to Bitcoin, the stage is set for a continued re‑rating of Bitcoin’s risk‑adjusted return profile. This environment increases the probability that Bitcoin remains in a high‑participation regime, attracting new capital and reinforcing the momentum behind the price rally. The evolving policy landscape thus remains a central pillar of the bull narrative, shaping expectations about where Bitcoin could head next and how quickly it could get there.
The possibility of a national Bitcoin reserve or state‑level involvement also invites considerations about the macro implications for both markets and policy design. While the specifics of how such a reserve would operate—and how it would interact with public money or sovereign balance sheets—remain topics of debate, the very notion signals a deeper, structural level of recognition. If a government or government‑adjacent entity positions itself as a buyer at scale, this could alter the supply dynamics, influence market liquidity, and affect the perceived legitimacy of Bitcoin as a store of value or strategic asset. The implications extend to central‑bank symbolism, monetary policy debates, and the broader digital asset ecosystem, potentially affecting how other large buyers view risk and how retail participants perceive the long‑term value proposition of a decentralized asset with a capped supply.
In this complex interplay of policy, institutional demand, and strategic corporate action, Bitcoin’s price could be driven not only by speculative momentum but also by the structural signals that policy discussions emit about the asset’s role in the broader financial system. As investors monitor policy developments, they will also watch for concrete implementations—clarified regulatory frameworks, the growth of regulated investment channels, and evidence of sustained institutional participation—that could extend the rally beyond short‑term euphoria. The evolving policy environment remains a crucial determinant of Bitcoin’s trajectory, and its potential to catalyze a longer‑term re‑rating of Bitcoin’s value proposition remains a central element of the market narrative.
Projections, models, and the case for a multi‑year upside
Analysts and researchers have long studied Bitcoin through the lens of historical patterns, supply dynamics, and macro‑structural drivers. In the current context, a combination of institutional demand, regulatory shifts, and supportive policy signals has reinforced the belief that Bitcoin could reach multi‑hundred‑thousand dollars in the coming years. One prominent forecast, emanating from a widely followed research framework, posits a potential reach of $200,000 by the end of 2025. This optimistic projection rests on several pillars: rising institutional demand that translates into longer‑term holding behavior, a more predictable regulatory environment, and the hopeful alignment of pro‑crypto appointments and policy signals that encourage a broader acceptance of digital assets.
From a policy and institutional standpoint, the narrative hinges on the expectation that regulated market access will expand, enabling greater participation by institutions and asset managers. As policymakers and regulators provide clearer guidelines for how Bitcoin and related products can be integrated into traditional investment portfolios, institutions may be more inclined to allocate capital to Bitcoin as part of diversified exposure to digital assets. Such shifts could manifest in larger inflows into regulated investment vehicles, higher average AUM for crypto products, and an expanded set of custodial, staking, and settlement services that lower friction for institutional investors seeking to access Bitcoin.
The macro backdrop, including positive regulatory shifts and a friendlier stance toward crypto within relevant government circles, is also considered a tailwind for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Analysts point to a confluence of factors that could push Bitcoin toward higher price bands, including structural demand for a scarce finite asset, an expanding ecosystem of infrastructure and services around Bitcoin, and the ongoing refinement of risk management frameworks that support institutional and corporate participation. The argument is that as long as these factors cohere, Bitcoin may follow a sustained upward path supported by the fundamentals of supply and demand, even in the face of periodic volatility.
Another influential driver cited by researchers is the ongoing adoption of Bitcoin by non‑retail investors and the growth of value propositions tied to digital assets. The maturation of the market includes the emergence of new financial products, such as exchange‑traded products that facilitate regulated exposure, and the expansion of services that make it easier for investors to gain and manage exposure to Bitcoin. The combination of these developments could contribute to more durable demand and a more predictable price trajectory, even during episodes of market consolidation or pullbacks.
Historical patterns around Bitcoin’s price behavior around halving events provide a framework for thinking about potential price trajectories in 2025. In the wake of each halving, Bitcoin has exhibited pronounced rallies, followed by periods of consolidation. A common narrative is that the cycle tends to feature a multi‑year ascent that culminates in a peak before a correction ensues. In particular, the post‑halving price dynamics of previous cycles—marked by substantial percentage gains from troughs to peaks—have become a touchstone for analysts projecting future performance. If a similar trajectory unfolds after the April 2024 halving, a rally in the range of hundreds of percent could be anticipated before peaking, consistent with the broader cyclical framework that has characterized Bitcoin’s history.
Within the context of these projections, a credible scenario puts Bitcoin at a top around $150,000 in 2025, as suggested by a regression‑based model that analyzes historical performance, halving cycles, and price momentum. The model aligns a 300–400 percent lift from the April 2024 halving with the upper boundary of around $150,000, presenting a structured pathway that could unfold if market conditions remain favorable. The underlying premise is that the halving‑driven supply dynamics, combined with expanding demand from institutions and pro‑crypto policy signals, would produce a consistent lift with a well‑defined ceiling as predicted by the model. While not a guarantee, the model provides a framework for investors to consider the likelihood of reaching the higher end of the spectrum in the current cycle.
A crucial aspect of the projected path is the relationship between supply discipline and demand expansion. The halving event reduces the block reward and, over time, is designed to create scarcity that supports price appreciation, assuming demand remains robust. In practice, the timing and strength of this supply constraint interact with the evolving demand environment. A sustained increase in institutional and corporate demand could push prices higher, as more buyers compete to accumulate Bitcoin. Conversely, if demand fails to meet expectations or if macro risks intensify, the same structural factors could be offset by selling pressure or risk aversion.
From a risk management perspective, it is essential to consider the implications of a potential overextension in price. The intersection of high expectations, policy optimism, and heavy speculative activity can lead to a vulnerability to corrections if the narrative shifts or if macro conditions change. The projection for a $150,000 top, as suggested by the regression model, sits within a broader context of potential volatility, with the possibility of pullbacks occurring as the market digests new information and reassesses risk. In such a framework, investors are advised to remain mindful of risk controls, diversification, and the regulatory landscape that could alter the fundamental drivers behind Bitcoin’s price.
The converging lines of evidence—from institutional demand and regulatory trajectories to halving dynamics and model‑based projections—paint a picture of a Bitcoin market that could sustain heightened levels into 2025. While forecasts vary, and the path may not be linear, the consensus view among researchers and market participants is that Bitcoin’s price could continue to strengthen given the current mix of structural drivers. The interplay between supply scarcity, institutional participation, and policy clarity forms a potent combination that has historically propelled Bitcoin higher in subsequent cycles, and many analysts expect this dynamic to repeat in the coming years, with the potential for substantial upside depending on how policy and market development unfold.
Caveats, divergence signals, and the potential for a corrective phase
While bullish narratives around Bitcoin’s price trajectory remain compelling, a more cautious perspective emphasizes the risk of a near‑term pullback or consolidation, particularly if the market begins to show signs of overheating or if momentum signals diverge from price action. A critical cautionary note from recent history is the tendency for sharp rallies to be followed by sharp pullbacks, especially when technical indicators diverge from price movements and when market exuberance reaches extreme levels. A relevant parallel often cited by market observers is Bitcoin’s price action in 2021, where a peak near $69,000 was accompanied by a notable bearish divergence in RSI, even as prices climbed higher. This divergence, characterized by rising prices paired with weakening momentum, preceded a substantial correction of approximately 77 percent that took Bitcoin down to the vicinity of trendline support and the 50‑week exponential moving average before a revival in price.
Presently, there are indications that Bitcoin could be forming a similar bearish divergence pattern. As Bitcoin trades near the $97,500–$98,000 area, momentum indicators, including RSI, have shown signs of weakening momentum relative to the price. If this pattern mirrors the 2021 experience, there is a credible risk that Bitcoin’s rally could peak near the psychologically important level of $100,000 before experiencing a substantial correction. In such a scenario, a pullback could be triggered as traders take profits, risk appetite shifts, or macro conditions prompt rotation out of risk assets.
From a technical standpoint, a potential correction might unfold toward key moving averages and trendlines that have historically served as critical support zones. The 50‑week simple moving average, a widely watched gauge among long‑term traders, has previously acted as a dynamic floor during downturns and could play a similar role in any corrective phase. If a pullback occurs, the 50‑week EMA could come into play as a reference point for evaluating the momentum of any retracement and the likelihood of a subsequent rebound. The proximity of Bitcoin to a significant ascending trendline that has provided support through multiple phases of the current bull cycle adds another layer of complexity to potential price action. Should the price test this trendline, there is a risk that weak hands could be flushed out, potentially precipitating a sharper move lower before demand returns and a fresh wave of buyers steps in.
The time window for a correction, if it were to occur, would likely be measured in weeks rather than months, given the acceleration of price action in recent periods and the presence of a number of supportive catalysts that could reassert upside later in the cycle. However, the degree of downside risk will hinge on multiple factors, including the evolution of policy clarity, the speed and scale of institutional inflows, macroeconomic conditions, and global market risk sentiment. The interplay between these factors could determine whether a correction remains shallow, near a healthy consolidation, or evolves into a deeper retracement that revisits critical support zones.
Another layer of risk relates to the behavioral and psychological dynamics at play. As the market builds a narrative around a major milestone and a potential policy shift, there is a risk of overexuberance giving way to a reality check if developments do not unfold as anticipated. In such a scenario, a period of consolidation could provide a healthier base for longer‑term growth, allowing the market to absorb new information and calibrate expectations. This possibility underscores the importance of maintaining a probabilistic view of outcomes and recognizing that price action can deviate from forecasts for extended periods.
In sum, while the upside case remains compelling, it is prudent to acknowledge the risk of a correction or consolidation, especially if momentum diverges or if policy developments fail to materialize in the expected fashion. The potential for a pullback to the 50‑week EMA or the nearby 60,000 level implies a meaningful retracement that could stabilize the market and set the stage for renewed upside later in the cycle. Investors should monitor the evolution of RSI signals, the behavior of major support levels, and the trajectory of policy clarity, as these factors will collectively shape Bitcoin’s price path in the near to medium term.
Technical outlook, scenarios, and the path toward 2025
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s current price dynamics present a complex portrait of strength tempered by the prospect of a meaningful correction. If the price remains buoyant and momentum holds, the immediate target remains the psychologically significant barrier near $100,000. Breaching this level could reinforce the bullish narrative and attract additional buyers who view a higher plateau as attainable within a relatively short time frame. The psychology of the market at this juncture is important: breaking a round number that has long symbolized a major milestone can act as a magnet for further upside as new buyers come into the market and previous holders reinforce their positions.
A critical technical support anchor exists around the 50‑week EMA, which has historically provided a robust floor in the event of pullbacks. Should prices pull back toward this moving average, the market could find a balance point that re‑ignites demand and provides a foundation for another leg higher. The interaction between price action and the trendline that has provided support during the current bullish phase will also be a focal point. If the trendline holds, it could offer a validation of the underlying bullish framework and bolster confidence among traders that the rally has lasting power.
In the scenario where Bitcoin continues to gain, a sequence of upside milestones could unfold. The next major milestone would likely be the next test of the $100,000 level, followed by resistance at higher round numbers that could attract attention from both speculative and strategic investors. If the market demonstrates resilience beyond $100,000, the path toward $150,000 or higher becomes increasingly plausible within the context of halving dynamics and the anticipated structural demand. In such a scenario, the confluence of halving effects, rising institutional exposure, and policy clarity could reinforce a pro‑growth trajectory that sustains price action through the remainder of the year and into the next cycle.
Conversely, a material deterioration in risk sentiment, a setback in policy progress, or a disproportionate reaction to macro concerns could alter the trajectory. A deepening correction would likely see prices retreat toward historically relevant supports, including the 50‑week EMA and the ascending trendline mentioned earlier. In that case, a deeper retracement could set the stage for a prolonged consolidation, followed by a renewed attempt at higher highs once conditions reframe favorably. The balance of risks and opportunities will be shaped by how policy, institutional participation, and macro risk appetite interact in the months ahead.
In practice, investors should keep a close watch on key indicators and signals that have historically preceded major moves. Momentum measures, on‑chain metrics that track hodling patterns and accumulation behavior, funding rates across perpetual markets, and the pace of ETF inflows can all contribute to a more nuanced view of whether the rally has further room to run or is nearing a turning point. A disciplined approach to risk management—encompassing position sizing, stop‑loss discipline, and diversification across assets—will be essential as Bitcoin navigates the unfolding policy landscape and transitions through different phases of its price cycle. The market’s ability to absorb new information, adapt to evolving regulatory signals, and sustain a broad base of participants will ultimately determine whether Bitcoin’s ascent to the next milestone is orderly, volatile, or punctuated by sharper corrections.
Bearish divergence signals and the risk of a 2025 correction
As the market contends with the latest price advance, a cautious voice underscores the possibility that Bitcoin could encounter a correction after a sustained rally, particularly if risk appetite changes or if momentum signals diverge from the price trend. The parallel drawn to the price action of 2021—where Bitcoin reached a peak around $69,000 while the RSI displayed a bearish divergence, preceding a sharp decline—remains a useful frame for assessing current conditions. The concern is that price could push toward the psychologically important threshold of $100,000, only to encounter a mismatch with momentum indicators that foretells a correction. If the historical pattern repeats, the correction could be sharp and extend toward a major support zone before a renewed attempt at higher prices emerges.
In the present setup, traders should monitor whether a similar divergence is forming as Bitcoin approaches the high‑80,000s and 90,000s. A persistent divergence where the price continues to push higher but the RSI or other momentum gauges fail to follow in lockstep would be a warning signal that the uptrend is losing steam. The risk is not only technical but also tied to the broader narrative around policy, institutional demand, and macro risk factors that could reintroduce volatility to the market. The interplay of these elements will influence whether the market experiences a sustained ascent or faces a corrective phase that tests the durability of the current rally.
If a correction materializes, the key question becomes where the market would find support and how quickly buyers would re‑engage. Historically, the 50‑week EMA and an important ascending trendline have provided critical support during prior downturns. A retracement that tests these levels could flush out weak hands and attract new buyers at discounted prices, potentially setting the stage for a rebound. The timing of any correction and the depth of the pullback would be influenced by the rate at which policy clarity is achieved, the speed and scale of institutional inflows, and the overall risk sentiment across global markets. The potential for a rebound after a correction remains plausible, especially if policy developments translate into clearer regulatory guidelines and if institutional actors recommit to long‑term strategies involving Bitcoin.
Overall, while the bullish case remains compelling in light of policy signals, institutional participation, and halving dynamics, a disciplined investor approach requires acknowledging the risk of a correction. By balancing optimism with a careful assessment of momentum divergences, key support levels, and macro developments, market participants can prepare for a range of outcomes in 2025. The probability distribution favors continued upside, but the possibility of a meaningful correction should be an explicit part of any risk assessment and portfolio planning.
Conclusion
Bitcoin has moved decisively into uncharted price territory, driven by a confluence of policy discussions, anticipated regulatory clarity, and robust institutional interest. The move past $98,000 underscores the market’s confidence that digital assets are poised for ongoing integration into mainstream finance, aided by potential policy mechanisms, the prospect of a national Bitcoin reserve, and a dynamic ecosystem of regulated investment products and corporate treasury activities. Analysts and investors alike are weighing the implications of Bernstein’s bullish projection—a path toward as high as $200,000 by the end of 2025—against the historical realities of previous cycles and the risk of a later correction prompted by momentum divergence, macro shifts, or policy developments.
The narrative around Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains multifaceted. On one hand, the case for continued upside is supported by rising institutional demand, the expansion of regulated product access, and the prospect of policy clarity that could encourage broader participation. On the other hand, the potential for a corrective phase cannot be dismissed, particularly if momentum signals weaken or if market conditions evolve in ways that dampen risk appetite. The interplay between supply dynamics, demand expansion, policy signals, and macro risk will shape Bitcoin’s path through 2025 and into the next cycle.
In the near term, market participants will monitor price action around critical levels, the pace of ETF inflows, corporate treasury moves, and the evolution of policy discussions that could translate into actionable regulatory guidance. The outcome of these developments will influence whether Bitcoin maintains momentum toward the next major milestone or experiences a period of consolidation that tests the durability of the current uptrend. As the market absorbs new information, the emphasis will remain on risk management, disciplined trading, and a clear understanding of how policy and institutional dynamics intersect with Bitcoin’s price journey.
